We are living in a period of great uncertainty, economically and socially. The world is faced with a geopolitical and humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe. The effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are beginning to reverberate through the world economy in the form of rising oil, natural gas, and commodity prices.
Well, this past quarter was not in the 2022 roadmap! In last quarter’s market update, I outlined three potential market villains for the year: 1. A Covid Return 2. Inflation 3. Rising Interest Rates. Little did I know, a real world Bond Villain (Putin) would be the catalyst for most of the market's headwinds this year. Frankly, that is the way these things go: THE UNKNOWN IS ALWAYS THE PROBLEM. The market and its participants were just as aware of the three headline risks I assessed and, therefore, those risks were already priced into the market.
It is no secret that women traditionally had little to do with family finances or retirement planning. Over time, women have come a long way, especially as their presence in the workforce expanded and income increased.
The first season of a great television series is often hard to top. The excitement of a new plot, meeting the major characters, and understanding the themes of the show means that every subsequent season will be compared to the first. Well, if 2020 was season one of the pandemic 2021 was the promising albeit repetitive second season. The stock market was great for investors in seasons one and two (more on that in a minute), but the cast of villains had some changeover.
Following an explosive 9 month run, small cap stocks slowed their pace of growth allowing large cap stocks to nearly close the gap for the year. Meanwhile, international markets underperformed U.S. markets. This is not surprising. To many other nations, the U.S has had a fairly productive vaccine rollout and therefore many components of the U.S. economy are back to a semblance of normalcy. As international stocks become even cheaper (relative to U.S. stocks), at some point that may present investors with an opportunity.
Imagine this: the year is 2014 and your diversified investment portfolio is earning a measly 7% while your neighbor Joe’s S&P 500 index is up over 14%(1). As if that wasn’t enough, Dianne, across the street made a risky decision to buy airline stocks and she’s all but doubled her investment (2)! So what gives? You’ve hired a financial advisor, and they don’t seem to be keeping up. This is the plight of many investors, but when is the last time Joe and Dianne came to your door to tell you about their big loss?
Well, that was a year to remember! I won’t spend too much time talking about 2020 as we are all looking forward to moving on. However, it may be worthwhile to do a short recap of what happened to markets and how they concluded in 2020.
The second quarter of 2020 will make history as will the first quarter albeit for different reasons. As we all painfully remember the Q1 marked nearly unprecedented volatility in the markets as the world dealt with the unfolding news of Covid-19. The S&P 500 plummeted to its lowest when it fell 33% from its high in less than 5 weeks. Beginning near the end of Q1 and sprinting straight through Q2 the market has come roaring back.