We are facing a bump in the road right now, and I can feel anxiety and panic coming from some clients. I’m writing this today to hopefully relieve some of those emotions and explain what has happened in markets, why it has happened, and what FSG is doing. In addition, this past Monday, the 9th, Mark Carter and I recorded a video talking about many of the same things.
Well, this past quarter was not in the 2022 roadmap! In last quarter’s market update, I outlined three potential market villains for the year: 1. A Covid Return 2. Inflation 3. Rising Interest Rates. Little did I know, a real world Bond Villain (Putin) would be the catalyst for most of the market's headwinds this year. Frankly, that is the way these things go: THE UNKNOWN IS ALWAYS THE PROBLEM. The market and its participants were just as aware of the three headline risks I assessed and, therefore, those risks were already priced into the market.
Found money is really so much more disposable than earned money. It really is easier to spend “found” money on something fun, whereas earned money feels like it must be treated with extreme prudence. A tax refund can really feel like found money and often it gets treated as such. I know many friends, clients, and even myself have spent tax refunds on fun purchases like electronics and vacations. I get it. It's nice to feel like once a year you're getting a little windfall that you can spend on something fun, but I’m here to tell you there are good reasons to not want a refund.
Before I get into the nuts and bolts of what is happening and how we as a firm view the market impact, I want to address this question: Should you be concerned? The answer to this question is the same for every market crash. You should be concerned ONLY if you are relying on your portfolio for income AND there is NO fixed income allocation in your portfolio. Allow me to explain, but first we must agree on the premises that you are investing for the long term, the market cannot be timed, and fear is the enemy of successful investing.
Once every 18 months. That is how often the S&P 500 drops 10%, also known as a “correction”. We all remember the last correction (also commonly referred to as a “crash”), which happened in March of 2020. But what you may not remember is how long it took for the market to recover from that crash. The market took less than 5 months to rebound, bouncing back in August 2020. That was an enormously quick turnaround. August of 2020 was 18 months ago, and guess what we have not had in 18 months? That’s right, a correction!
The first season of a great television series is often hard to top. The excitement of a new plot, meeting the major characters, and understanding the themes of the show means that every subsequent season will be compared to the first. Well, if 2020 was season one of the pandemic 2021 was the promising albeit repetitive second season. The stock market was great for investors in seasons one and two (more on that in a minute), but the cast of villains had some changeover.
FANG is an acronym first coined by CNBC’s Jim Cramer in 2013. The acronym stands for Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. The acronym quickly caught on and became common lingo in the investing industry. Eventually, FANG grew to FAANG to include an “old tech” company Apple. There was another company added and a name change for Facebook and Google, which can only mean there should be a new acronym for these companies...
A tremendous amount happened this past quarter at least from a geopolitical perspective. As far as the market is concerned nothing significant happened. The DOW opened July at 34,507 and opened on September 30th at 34,467. If you closed your eyes on July 1 and didn’t open them until October 1, you might think the market didn’t move. We all know better than that. The markets moved up, down, and...