Market Update March 2016
Have you ever been waiting in line at the grocery store, or perhaps the coffee shop, and trying to listen to the attendant but the person behind you was talking so loud into their cellphone they may as well be shouting? This minor violation of unwritten societal rules can be especially irritating and difficult to ignore because it distracts us from what is important.
For us advisors and investors alike, the media often causes a similar irritating effect within the markets. With the recent volatility in commodity and equity markets, and even more volatility in the political world, the media will seemingly report on anything while paying particular attention to negative news in order to increase viewership. For investors, it is important to block out a lot of this noise. If we get too caught up in the day to day drama of the news, we can lose track of our long term goals and strategies.
This can, and often does, lead to anxiety, stress and ultimately poor decisions that cost us financially. Warren Buffet was recently quoted saying, “I never know what markets are going to do…. In terms of what is going to happen in a day or a month, or a year even, I have never felt that I knew it and I have never felt that it was important. I will say that in 10 or 20 or 30 years, I think stocks will be a lot higher than they are right now.”
The truth is that over the last 100 years America, and the world for that matter, have seen times of great distress. Two World Wars, the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Cold War, oil embargo, flu epidemics, the great depression, good presidents, bad presidents and the list goes on. Despite all of this, the American economy has thrived and equity markets have appreciated tremendously.
You may have noticed that we avoid making bold claims about the market in these writings. This is because we find ourselves no more qualified than Mr. Buffett in predicting the day to day and month to month market moves. With that being said, we know that over the longer term, as the U.S. economic machine continues to churn, markets usually respond positively. Markets will likely continue to be bumpy for a while but it is to our benefit and yours not to get too caught up in the speculation of what could happen in the next month, year or even couple of years. As mentioned earlier, the world economies have seen tremendous adversity in the not too distant past and if we put our history into perspective, the outlook begins to look pretty promising.
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